IEA Reveals Current oil forecast amid ongoing supply cuts

Toril Bosoni, the Head of the Oil Industry and Markets Division at the International Energy Agency (IEA), has revealed that the current oil market deficit is anticipated to shift to a slight surplus in 2024, in a recent interview.
The projection holds even if OPEC+ leaders, notably Saudi Arabia and Russia, decide to extend their production and export cuts into the upcoming year.
Bosoni shared insights during an industry event in Norway, stating that global oil stocks are currently witnessing a swift decline. The situation raises concerns about potential heightened volatility in the market, particularly in the face of economic and geopolitical risks.
The IEA recently revised its global oil demand forecasts for both 2023 and 2024, acknowledging that consumption is outpacing initial expectations. However, the agency also cautioned that supply growth is exceeding projections.
It emphasised the vulnerability of market balances to economic and geopolitical risks, suggesting the potential for further volatility ahead. Despite an upward adjustment in demand forecasts, the Northern Hemisphere winter poses challenges as demand continues to outstrip available supplies.
Speculation has been mounting regarding Saudi Arabia’s potential extension of its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) into 2024.
This speculation is fueled by the recent dip in oil prices to $80 and the historical pattern of weak demand in the first quarter of each year.
A potential deeper cut by the entire OPEC+ group, combined with the extension of voluntary reductions by Saudi Arabia and Russia, could nullify the currently expected market surplus in the first quarter of 2024, according to ING strategists.
The evolving situation underscores the dynamic nature of global oil markets and the intricate factors influencing supply and demand dynamics.

source: allnewsng.com

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